Risk assessment - class exercise 'Project management" June, 2016

Risk analysis in class: HK third runway project: (June 2016)
Basic supportive viewpoints

a.     The 3^rd runway is built to avoid foreseeable runway capacity shortage as well as to meet direct competition from other regional airports nearby.

b.     Certain technical problems related to the project, including the airspace negotiation with other parties in the Mainland, will be solved by the time the 3^rd runway facility is implemented; besides, these problems, notably the regional airspace coordination being unconstitutional, do not exist in the first place.

c.     Project financing takes the form of extra charge from airport passengers, issuance of bonds and bank loans. Investors appear to be interested in purchasing these bonds, implying that they support the HKATRP.

d.     An advisory committee is to be set up to monitor controversy of the HKATRP and regular reporting is to be made to lawmakers as a way to strengthen the project reporting function.

Basic opposing viewpoints

a.     The critical issue of airspace management has not been settled satisfactorily and is expected difficult to be settled satisfactorily.

b.     The Hong Kong Government and the Airport Authority Hong Kong have been quite evasive and defensive all along in responding to queries and expressed worries about the HKATRP from the pressure groups and politicians.

c.     The Hong Kong Government and the Airport Authority Hong Kong have not sufficiently been consulting the legislative council and the public on the HKATRP financing arrangements.

d.     The Hong Kong Government and the Airport Authority Hong Kong (AAHK) have not seriously considered alternative plans, e.g., building a new airport, to address the impending airport capacity shortage concern.

e.     The HKATRP creates severe hazards to the airport area’s marine ecology and Ma Wan.

f.      The health impact assessment of the HKATRP is incomplete and misleading.

g.     The cost estimate of the HKATRP, e.g., on Terminal 2 expansion, is too conservative.